Capitol Commentary’s 2012 Predictions… How’d We Do?

Posted on Jan 2 2013 - 1:00am by Harrison

On January 2nd of last year I made 10 predictions and here’s how I did:

10.  Mitt Romney will be the Republican presidential nominee.


Thought Mittens lost, he beat all other challengers for the nomination.

09. Barack Obama will keep Joe Biden as his Vice President despite rumors of a switch to Hillary Clinton.


We’ll have Joe Biden to kick around for another 4 years.

08.  Iran will not test a nuclear device because there will be a bombing of their nation by United States forces with help from Israel.

Half Correct

Iran did not test a nuke nor did they get bombed.

07.  A Supreme Court justice will step down giving Barack Obama a last minute pick of a justice.


The justices are still healthy but at their age, several will be stepping down… just a matter of time.

06.  The European Union will not come to an end but nations like Greece, Italy, and Spain will be forced to leave the monetary union.


Although there is talk of Greece leaving the EU’s monetary union, it hasn’t happened… yet.

05.  By the end of December, U.S. unemployment will be under 7.5%.

The unemployment rate is 7.9% for November so no official word on December.


04.  The nations of Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Syria, and Iraq will be Islamic theocracies.

Half Correct.

Although it’s going in this direction (Egypt) they’re not all Islamic theocracies… yet.

03.  A “peace treaty” with the Taliban will emerge allowing Barack Obama to claim American forces can begin leaving Afghanistan.  Of course, this treaty will be a sham but it will provide political fire for withdraw.


Obama did float the idea of a peace treaty but nothing has been signed.

02.  Uprisings in Russia, surrounding presidential elections, will lead to mass killings by the government of its citizens.

Half Correct.

There were mass protests over the presidential elections but, fortunately, mass killings did not materialize.

01.  Barack Obama wins a second term.  Social Conservatives, appalled by Romney’s nomination, stay home causing the balance to tilt to the Democrat’s side.

Half Correct

Obama did win re-election but Romney’s loss doesn’t seem to have involved Social Conservatives who supported him at about the same level as with Ronald Reagan.

So out of 10, with “Half Correct” getting half a point… how did we do?

45% so slightly better than guessing!

2 Comments so far. Feel free to join this conversation.

  1. Steve Dennis January 2, 2013 at 2:29 PM -

    I think you did pretty well as some of your half correct predictions will probably be correct before all is said and done. It will just take a little longer than you predicted.
    Steve Dennis recently posted..With the fiscal cliff averted 77% of Americans will face a tax increase

    • Harrison January 2, 2013 at 3:26 PM -

      Thanks, Steve. I guess I’m often correct, it just takes the world time to reach my (low) expectations!