The Oncoming Multipolar World

China's navy grows in capabilities.

China has always been protective about its rights to Taiwan, which it considers to be a break-away province and they have made no secret of the fact that, one day, they will host a family reunion.  China has been increasing its military capability for the past several years and, thanks to all of the exports the U.S. buys from them, they’ve had the money with which to do it.  The current crisis in the Gulf of Aden with Somali pirates has given China the exucse to flex its muscles and show off its navy’s deep water capabilities.

A recent incident where Chinese naval ships either harrassed or set straight (depending upon your point of view) American naval ships in international waters off of China  has demonstrated that China is intent upon showing the U.S. that they feel they can demand respect from our military and political leaders:

Chinese ships surrounded and harassed a Navy mapping ship in international waters off China, at one point coming within 25 feet of the American boat and strewing debris in its path, the Defense Department said Monday.

Chinese leaders are no dummies when it comes to plotting their course towards challenging the United States and, after all, who can blame them?  For generations China was a giant with no abilities to project force very far from its shores which is probably why, back in the 1950s and 60s they didn’t invade Taiwan: it required more than they could handle.  Now, in 2009, however, China is flexing its muscles executing a Reagan-era defense build-up that will probably catch the United States sleeping:

China said Wednesday it will increase its military budget in 2009 by 14.9% from the year before, marking the 21st straight year of double-digit growth in its defense spending. Li Zhaoxing, a spokesman for China’s National People’s Congress, or parliament, told a press conference the government will submit to the congress a plan to spend $480.69 billion yuan (about $70.2 billion) on its military this year.

Counties like Japan are alarmed as well they should be considering Japanese soldiers murdered and tortured untold numbers of Chinese before and during WWII in their quest to dominate what they considered to be their sphere of influence.  The United States should be alarmed to because we have exerted a great deal of might, rightly or not, over Asia as we have military bases in South Korea and in Japan.  I’d imagine that the Chinese government sees this U.S. presence not so much as a potential threat but more of a sign of weakness.  After all, would the United States permit Chinese bases in Cuba or Siberia?

Star Trek predicts the rise of China: the Coms (Communists) vs. the Yangs (Yanks)

The United States currently holds worldwide superiority in regards to military capabilities which directly and indirectly permits us to heavily influence the conduct of other nations from buying our debt to selling us their oil.  China has been forced to buy U.S. debt in order to allow our government to continue to recklessly spend money it does not have to prop up consumer spending.  Our new Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently visited China,  practically begging them to continue to “invest” in the United States.  This visit was a key turning point not only in how the U.S.-China relationship has changed but also a sign that the balance of power is beginning to tilt favoring a “multipolar” world France has always talked about but was too weak to create.  The growing stength of China’s armed forces will likely weaken the U.S. abilities to help guarentee the sovereignty of Taiwan because our forces will be outnumbered:

The mainland is building a fleet of silent and deadly attack submarines that may soon outnumber our own.  A recent Congressional Quarterly article warned that China by itself would possess twice as many submarines as the U.S. by 2010, and would likely have a larger fleet by 2015, possibly including at least one carrier of its own.  The capabilities and proficiency of the Chinese submarine fleet was demonstrated on Oct. 26, 2006, when another Song-class attack sub surfaced undetected within weapons distance of the aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk in the East China Sea off Okinawa.

The oncoming weakness of U.S. military power in Asia will allow China to exert the will of its Communist leadership and, in doing so, allow them to possibly invade and annex Taiwan, a key ally of the U.S. in Asia.  Other countries like South Korea and Japan, long used to American influence, may eventually see that they will need to cozy up to China if they believe that the key to their future lies in Bejing not in Washington.

The flexing of muscle by the Chinese navy against the U.S. is all the more alarming due to the fact as to how brazen it was:

Impeccable’s crew radioed to tell the Chinese ships that it was leaving the area and requested a safe path to navigate, the Pentagon said.

But two of the Chinese ships stopped directly ahead of the Impeccable, forcing it to an emergency stop, the U.S. account said. The Chinese also dropped pieces of wood in the water in Impeccable’s path.

On Thursday, a Chinese frigate approached USNS Impeccable without warning and crossed its bow at a range of approximately 100 yards, the Pentagon said. This was followed less than two hours later by a Chinese Y-12 aircraft conducting 11 fly-bys of Impeccable at an altitude of 600 feet and a range from 100-300 feet.

Projection of U.S. military power is our future.

Taken by itself, this incident wouldn’t be that serious but it is not the first time that China has shown the world that it is going to be the oncoming power in the 21st Century.  If the United States wants to maintain its military leadership President Obama will need to spend more money on defense:

The U.S. Navy, which reached 568 ships in the late 1980s, struggles today to sustain a fleet of 279. The Navy is roughly the size it was on the eve of World War I.

While the fiscal 2009 U.S. defense budget shows a nominal uptick, which we applaud, the Obama budget also projects that by 2016 the defense spending will be just 3% of GDP — or less than half the 50-year Cold War average.

While many may see the sunset of U.S. global hegenomy as a positive step, the facts are that the Chinese government is Communist and they imprison and torture many of their own citizens to maintain order.  They do not have freedom of speech or assembly and as Tienanmen Square showed in 1991, they are not shy about brutally suppressing any threats they see to their leadership.  Additionally, because things like President Obama’s massive $787 billion “stimulus” bill became law, were U.S. military might to be subverted by a powerful China it would be increasingly difficult for American leaders to try and get China to continue to buy our debt (this is maybe not such a bad thing long term).  The irony in all of this, of course, is that the massive debt taxpayers now have hanging over their heads was brought to us by the Democrats who are now going to try and “save” money by cutting defense spending which will allow countries like China to slowly gain more leverage over us.

American consumers should spend less, the government should take on less debt, and our military forces should not be allowed to whither.  The future will not happen overnight and China still has a long way to go in order to field a modern military with advanced technology and well trained troops but the writing is on the wall for those who know how to read:

“The change is in China’s attitude. This reflects the hardening line in Chinese foreign policy and the importance we attach to the strategic value of the South China Sea.”

Will our fearless leaders understand in time?

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