Spaced Out

With the recent news that theocratically-run Iran had successfully launched its first satellite the West must ask itself a question… to where will this lead?  As one of the major sponsors of terrorism we can’t say as though this is a good thing.  Unfortunately Iran has also been allowed to continue its nuclear program and will probably have at least one nuclear warhead sometime this year.

The former administration of President George W. Bush spent all of its political, military, and diplomatic capital in Iraq, leaving Iran alone to develop its programs without Western intervention.  Saddam Hussein was very fearful of Iran and, even in the face of threats of a U.S. invasion, bluffed that he had nukes and WMDs.  A recent book by the Saddam’s main interrogator says:

Until 9/11, Saddam thought UN sanctions would go away and he could make a nuclear bomb. His prewar weapons of mass destruction deceptions were a ruse to convince Iran – whom he feared – that he had an arsenal.

But the real threat has always been Iran… aside from financial sanctions, they have always been left alone to pursue their options and the oil revenue they gained allowed them to pay for it, too.  The Obama administration has said all along that it intends to open talks with Iran which has resulted in the U.S. being called weak.

The United States and the Obama administration face some difficult decisions in the next 1-2 years.  With Israel the most to lose should Iran develop a nuclear weapon, they will probably, secretly backed by the U.S., be the first to act, perhaps in an air strike of some sort.  Any military action against Iran will surely trigger huge destructive actions on the part of Iran and, in retaliation, Israel and possibly the U.S.

I would suspect that Iran, seeing how draining the conflict in Iraq has been politically speaking, will bet that the U.S. will not take any action against their country.  Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad surely knows that he is dealing from a postion of strength and the Obama Administration, though new and untested, will not be as aggressive as the president whom he replaced.

At the end of the day the U.S. will likely be forced to accept an Iran with nuclear weapons just as we did with Pakistan and India.  Should Iran pull off this coup it will be even more necessary for the U.S. to maintain a strong presense in Iraq to counter-balance Iran.  Europe, as usual, will probably allow the U.S. to take the weight of this problem solely on her shoulders while countries like Germany continue to do business with that country.

President Obama, more than ever, needs to increase funding for the U.S. missile defense system which has had stunning success after stunning success.  President Obama also needs to re-think his pledge to remove U.S. troops from Iraq as soon as possible, assuming the Iraqis want us to stay.

Former President George W. Bush might have done some things correctly after 9/11 in terms of keeping his country safe but messing with Iraq instead of saving his chips for Iran might end up being his biggest misstep.  On this final point, only history will be the judge at which point it will be too late.

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